From VGI Potential to Deployment
Practical guidance on how to plan, prepare for and scale VGI deployment.
The next few decades are expected to bring an unprecedented rate of transformational change to both the electricity sector and automotive sector. Canada is targeting 90% EV sales by 2040, while electricity demand is expected to double by 2050. The automotive and electricity sectors are therefore entering major transformations at the same time, with EV charging creating a new and increasingly important connection between them.
Waiting for certainty before planning for VGI carries its own risks. The precise scale of VGI’s potential remains uncertain; however, its materiality does not. Organizations that have not yet assessed VGI risk missing key windows to make timely, cost-effective investment decisions. Uncertainty is best mitigated by planning with the best available information, updating those plans, and increasing action as evidence becomes clearer. VGI isn't a single technology or target. Managed charging will be essential for handling rising EV loads efficiently, while bidirectional charging offers additional value by supporting grid affordability, reliability, and decarbonization. Opportunities vary by organization and location, making it crucial to identify where value exists and start planning now.
Planning and forecasting for VGI
VGI should be incorporated into electricity-system and transportation planning now, even before the details of future deployment are known. Utilities, automakers, and other stakeholders make infrastructure, product, and investment decisions over long time horizons. Waiting for certainty risks locking in higher-cost investments and missing opportunities. It can also create a self-fulfilling cycle: forecasting and planning drive prioritization, so if VGI isn’t quantified alongside other resources, the rationale for taking action to reduce uncertainty won’t become apparent. Even the uncertainty range around VGI’s resource potential is larger than the total potential of many other types of DERs and could materially affect planning decisions — for example, whether a region needs to build a new power plant.
Planning assessments should not assume that all EV battery capacity will be available as a grid resource. The more useful question is how much VGI capacity can realistically be available, where and when it can provide value, and with what level of confidence. This requires moving from theoretical potential toward achievable potential.
For utilities, relevant planning considerations include:
Planning considerations for utilities
- EV adoption and charging demand: How many EVs are expected, where will they connect, and when will they charge?
- Grid needs and location: Where and when are generation, transmission, distribution or customer-level constraints expected, and which could VGI help address?
- Resource availability and participation: Which vehicles are likely to be plugged in when the grid needs them, how will incentives change plug-in behaviours, how much battery capacity will be available after mobility needs are met, and what level of customer participation can reasonably be expected?
- Reliability and dispatchability: How consistently can managed or bidirectional charging respond when called upon, individually and in aggregate?
- Technology and market readiness: Which vehicles, chargers, communications pathways, programs and compensation mechanisms are likely to be available over the planning horizon?
Incorporate uncertainty into planning rather than using it as a reason to exclude VGI. Scenario and sensitivity analysis can test a reasonable range of adoption, participation and resource-availability assumptions. The most consequential uncertainties can then guide targeted analysis, pilots and early deployments, with forecasts and plans updated as real-world evidence improves.
The precise scale of VGI’s potential remains uncertain; however, its materiality does not. Although initial planning assumptions may prove imperfect, they are likely to be substantially more accurate than an assumption that the potential is zero.
Planning your VGI pathway
Assess the opportunity
Assess where VGI could create value for your organization or region, including likely EV adoption, charging demand, grid needs, customer participation and achievable potential.
Plan & Forecast
Build VGI into forecasting, infrastructure planning, product roadmaps and other medium- and long-term decisions now, even where uncertainty exists.
Prepare & Test
Identify the key gaps or barriers, build the business case, address regulatory and organizational readiness, and use targeted initial program deployments with clear hypotheses and goals to resolve critical uncertainties.
Deploy and scale
Scale up programs where the value case is established, using real-world experience to refine planning and expand deployment.
Organizations planning for VGI deployment should keep a few key principles in mind while developing their VGI pathway:
Start with the grid need
Evaluate VGI as a potential solution to specific system needs alongside other options, including other DERs and traditional wires solutions. Identify where and when constraints are expected, then assess whether managed or bidirectional charging can provide valuable capacity, flexibility or resilience. The depth of analysis should match the decision being made, from bulk system planning to granular distribution-level assessments.
Focus on achievable value
The size of the EV fleet or its total battery capacity does not determine how much reliable grid value VGI can provide. Consider when vehicles will be available, their charging needs, customer participation, technology readiness, and whether resources are located where the grid needs them. Business cases should similarly reflect realistically deliverable value and the costs required to access it, including incentives, controls, interconnection, metering and program administration.
Look for the right match
Some of the strongest early VGI opportunities occur where vehicle time-of-use, grid time-of-need and customer time-of-decision align. School buses are a good example: they are largely unused during summer afternoons when many grids experience peak demand, while V2G revenues can help offset the cost of fleet electrification. Other fleets, such as garbage trucks and last-mile delivery vehicles, may offer similarly complementary operating schedules.
The reverse is also important: VGI may offer less incremental value where other mechanisms are already achieving the same objective. For example, strong time-of-use rates may already shift most EV charging away from bulk system peaks, reducing the additional peak-reduction value of traditional managed-charging demand response events and shifting the focus to distribution system optimization.
Use pilots to answer targeted questions
Pilots and early deployments should target uncertainties that could materially affect planning, investment or program decisions rather than replicate well-established findings. These may include customer participation, technology performance, interoperability, interconnection requirements, compensation structures or local grid impacts. Results should feed directly back into forecasts, business cases and program design, building confidence for larger-scale deployment. Coordinating across jurisdictions can also bring additional value to early deployments through shared learning and standardization.
There is no one-size-fits-all VGI pathway for all organizations. The optimal next move depends on local grid requirements, market dynamics, technology maturity, and customer needs. The key is to integrate VGI into planning now, recognize uncertainties that could significantly influence decisions, and leverage analysis, pilot projects, and early deployments to gradually increase confidence. As the market develops, these insights can inform planning, enabling organizations to transition from potential to large-scale deployment.
